# 1960 'Doomsday' Prediction of Infinite Population by Nov. 13, 2026, Unfulfilled

> A scientific paper from 1960 projected humanity would reach infinite population on Friday, November 13, 2026, but current demographic trends show a significantly slower growth rate.

By PrimaryBrief newsroom · Published 2026-10-17T20:51:09.760430Z
Canonical: https://primarybrief.com/article/1960-doomsday-prediction-of-infinite-population-by-nov-13-2026-unfulfilled-21cb30d3

In 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues predicted global "doomsday" for November 13, 2026, when they calculated the human population would reach infinity [12][13][14]. Today, as that date approaches, the world's population is approximately 8.3 billion, a number far from their infinite forecast [3][5][14].

This unfulfilled prediction demonstrates how human behavior and societal changes, including improved living standards and education, can alter even highly cited scientific models and reshape humanity's demographic future [intro][1][4]. It highlights the dynamic nature of population models and their sensitivity to societal shifts [1][4].

## What the records show

The 1960 paper, "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, observed a consistently shortening doubling time for human population since 400 BCE [12][14][15]. Using an equation based on historical population estimates, they projected that if this accelerating trend continued, the world's population would exceed 25 billion by 2020 and approach infinity by late 2026 [12][14]. They termed this point "doomsday," asserting that humanity would be "squeezed to death" [12][14]. The November 13, 2026, date was chosen by von Foerster, falling within his formula's range and coinciding with his birthday [12][14].

## The timeline

Von Foerster's model was widely cited in textbooks on genetics, ecology, and demography throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, its predictions considered accurate for decades [intro][1]. The global population's annual growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2.28% [3]. However, by approximately 1993, population growth began to fall behind the model's forecasts [intro][1]. The world population reached 8 billion in November 2022 and 8.2 billion in 2025 [2][7][8]. As of October 12, 2026, the population is estimated at 8.32 billion, with an annual growth rate of about 0.83% [3][5]. United Nations projections indicate the global population will peak around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before a gradual decline [7][8][9][10].

## What changed and for whom

The divergence from the 1960 prediction is attributed to shifts in human reproductive patterns [intro]. Declining birth rates are linked to improved living standards, increased education for women, and urbanization [intro][4][11]. Rising prosperity often changes perceptions of the costs and benefits of raising children, reducing family size [intro][4][11]. Higher educational attainment for women correlates with lower fertility rates, as it often leads to career opportunities, increased income, and delayed marriage and childbearing [intro][4]. Urbanization also contributes, as urban populations typically have better access to healthcare, education, and employment, influencing smaller families [intro][4][11].

## What the subject has said publicly

Upon the paper's publication, demographers expressed skepticism, pointing out perceived flaws [12][14]. Public health expert Harold Dorn commented in *Science* two years later that the article would swiftly prove unreliable [12]. The authors of the 1960 paper intended their work as a "thought experiment and a warning," aiming to show that a finite planet cannot sustain infinite growth [13].

## What we could not confirm

We could not confirm if Heinz von Foerster or his colleagues Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot made any specific public statements about their model's accuracy after the early 1990s, when global population growth began to fall behind their original forecasts [intro][1].

## Evidence cited
1. Scientists predicted doomsday for November 13, 2026. Should we be worried? (www.sciencedaily.com) — https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/10/261016070639.htm
2. Visualizing the 8.2 Billion World Population by Country (visualcapitalist.com) — https://visualcapitalist.com/
3. The global population is estimated at 8,231,613,070, or 8,232 million, or 8.23 billion, for 2025. By 2037, there will be over 9 billion people on the planet. Ten billion milestones are anticipated by 2058. The global population is expected to expand at a rate of 0.83% in 2026. By 2046, that yearly growth rate is predicted to drop to 0.5 percent, and by 2084, its population would be diminishing. With an annual growth rate of 2.28%, population growth peaked in 1963. In ten years, the pace of popul (statisticstimes.com) — https://statisticstimes.com/
4. World population - Wikipedia (wikipedia.org) — https://wikipedia.org/
5. World Population Clock: 8.3 Billion People (LIVE, 2026) - Worldometer (worldometers.info) — https://worldometers.info/
6. World Population Day 2026 (census.gov) — https://census.gov/
7. UN: World's population projected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s - Fast Company (fastcompany.com) — https://fastcompany.com/
8. World population projected to grow to 10.3 billion in 2080s, UN says | AP News (apnews.com) — https://apnews.com/
9. What Do the Latest UN Population Projections Mean for the Future? - Population Connection (populationconnection.org) — https://populationconnection.org/
10. World population likely to peak within current century, UN DESA report concludes (un.org) — https://un.org/
11. (August 15 2026) No. The trend is that as a country becomes more economically stable and access to healthcare improves, and as economies shift from agricultural to higher tech and populations shift to urban areas.... that population growth rate naturally declines. diovanedvx. •. 2mo ago. • Edited 2mo ago. That trend is now only partially true. Birth rates are declining sharply world wide, including in many developing countries that are still largely extractive and rural. Countries like India, Sr (reddit.com) — https://reddit.com/
12. November 13, 2026: Doomsday, Or Not? - Slashdot (slashdot.org) — https://slashdot.org/
13. In 1960, a study in Science predicted Doomsday on November 13, 2026, when the human population would reach infinity. What is the backstory and has it been disproven? (quora.com) — https://quora.com/
14. Friday, November 13, 2026 is Doomsday: The day our population would 'annihilate itself' (thenewdaily.com.au) — https://thenewdaily.com.au/
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16. Factors Reducing Birth Rates (vaia.com) — https://vaia.com/
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20. (April 24 2025) Drivers of Fertility Decline in MENA Region (rsisinternational.org) — https://rsisinternational.org/
21. As cities have swelled to host more than half the world's population, global fertility rates have plummeted from approximately five children per woman in the 1950s to 2.47 today, according to UN data. The two trends appear linked – as countries develop and become urbanised, fertility rates fall – even if a cause cannot actually be identified. (patrizia.ag) — https://patrizia.ag/
22. In many cases, the average number of children per woman of childbearing age in urban areas was above the national average. Recent research conducted by the International Pensions unit of Allianz supports these findings: in fact, on average, the birth rate in 41 major European and US cities is actually 7% higher than the national average of the country in which the city is located. In this study of fertility in cities in Europe and the US, crude birth rates (CBR) were calculated and compared with (allianz.com) — https://allianz.com/
23. (February 09 2026) Fertility rates have fallen rapidly in the UK and other high-income countries in recent years. Education, economic uncertainty and changing gender roles are among the factors that have played a part. Keeping the combination of causes in mind is essential for designing effective ...
...
(February 09 2026) Fertility rates have fallen rapidly in the UK and other high-income countries in recent years. Education, economic uncertainty and changing gender roles are among the factors  (economicsobservatory.com) — https://economicsobservatory.com/
24. (November 10 2021) In addition, technology has both increased the ability to avoid pregnancy and assisted with infertility, including at older ages. However, declines in birth rates are also driven by social and economic factors that constrain and influence people against having any or many children. Economic conditions that influence birth rates include recessions, wage levels, tax levels, the costs of child care, and other economic and opportunity costs of being in versus out of the labor forc (milbank.org) — https://milbank.org/
25. (August 20 2019) 4 Contributing Factors to Declining Fertility Rates: A Global Overview · 1. Improved Educational Opportunities for Women · 2. Lower Child Mortality · 3. Better Access to Contraception and Family Planning Advice · 4. Increasing Societal Prosperity · Predicting the Consequences of Lower Fertility Rates.
...
(August 20 2019) Better Access to Contraception and Family Planning Advice

 For some areas of the world, the sharpest declines in fertility rates have come from the introducti (volusonclub.net) — https://volusonclub.net/
26. (November 24 2015) A study (Pradhan and Canning 2013) of education and fertility in Ethiopia estimated that an additional year of schooling in Ethiopia would lead to a 7 percentage point reduction in the probability of teenage birth and a 6 percentage point decrease in the probability of marriage. These are large effects, suggesting that women with eight years of schooling would have a fertility rate 53 percentage points lower than those with no schooling at all, and are consistent with observed (worldbank.org) — https://worldbank.org/
27. (May 15 2023) Women's Education and Fertility (iza.org) — https://iza.org/
28. (April 21 2026) Download the Research Brief. The latest U.S. birth data confirm that the long-running decline in fertility is continuing. The general fertility rate in 2025 was 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44 – a remarkable 23 percent decline from its 2007 level of 69.5 (Hamilton, 2026). Much of the public discussion asks which group of women is driving this trend – working-class women facing economic constraints (as highlighted in Tavernise and Adelson, 2026) or highly educated women pur (nd.edu) — https://nd.edu/
29. Education does not significantly impact observable inputs to infant health and has generally small, but possibly heterogeneous, effects on infant health: women born just before and after the entry date have similar prenatal behaviors, as proxied by rates of smoking and prenatal care, and give birth to children of similar health, as proxied by birth weight, prematurity, and rate of infant mortality. There is some suggestive evidence of different effects of education on low birth weight by race an (nber.org) — https://nber.org/
30. Scientists predicted doomsday for November 13, 2026. Should we be worried? (www.sciencedaily.com) — https://sciencedaily.com/
31. There is little debate about the causal relationship between rising prosperity and declining fertility. Generally speaking, there has been a uniformly high correlation between national income growth and falling birth rates, and between family incomes and fertility. Economists and demographers for the most part agree that important ingredients of improved living standards, such as urbanization, industrialization and rising opportunities for non-agrarian employment, improved educational levels, an (aeaweb.org) — https://aeaweb.org/
32. (August 28 2024)  Highlights 
 
  * In most human societies, poverty does not predict higher fertility, and well-to-do families often have the highest fertility.  
  * The relationship between income levels and fertility is not some inherent, objective fact, but rather a product of culture.  
  * The effect of income on fertility is not even remotely consistent across cultures.  
...
(August 28 2024) Global fertility decline was kicked off almost entirely by normative and cultural processes, not (ifstudies.org) — https://ifstudies.org/
33. (February 22 2025) Why Economic Incentives Alone Won’t Boost Birth Rates | Cato Institute (cato.org) — https://cato.org/
34. (December 16 2025) Why are birth rates falling, and what can be done about it? | Harvard Public Health Magazine (harvard.edu) — https://harvard.edu/
35. (August 30 2022) Motivations for Childlessness in Poland (cogitatiopress.com) — https://cogitatiopress.com/
36. (October 08 2026) Social support, not just economics, crucial for understanding declining birth rates (psypost.org) — https://psypost.org/
37. Urbanization and fertility decline: Cashing in on structural change (iied.org) — https://iied.org/
38. (December 17 2024) Rural–urban fertility differentials and the role of women’s educational levels in selected Latin American and Caribbean countries, 1980–2020 (tandfonline.com) — https://tandfonline.com/
39. http://www.wvuresearch.org/r/file/10203e07-7313-4122-87ba-3a85942fdf46/file.pdf (wvu.edu) — https://wvu.edu/
40. (July 08 2022) Recent Declines in Fertility in the U.S. (upenn.edu) — https://upenn.edu/
41. Women's Empowerment & Education | World Population History (worldpopulationhistory.org) — https://worldpopulationhistory.org/