# European Airfares Could Jump Up to 20% in 2027, Ryanair CEO Warns Amid Soaring Fuel Costs

> European airfares are projected to increase by 10% to 20% in 2027, according to Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, following a nearly 128% year-on-year surge in jet fuel prices.

By PrimaryBrief newsroom · Published 2026-10-23T12:38:16.583402Z
Canonical: https://primarybrief.com/article/european-airfares-could-jump-up-to-20-in-2027-ryanair-ceo-warns-amid-soaring-fuel-costs-e191b8a9

European airfares could rise by 10% to 20% in 2027, Michael O'Leary, the CEO of Ryanair, predicted on October 20, 2026, at a press conference in Brussels, Belgium [1][2][4][5]. This forecast follows a sharp increase in jet fuel costs, with European prices averaging $207.61 a barrel in the week ending October 16, 2026, marking a nearly 128% rise from the previous year [6][18].

This potential increase in ticket prices could affect millions of travelers across Europe, making air travel significantly more expensive. The rising fuel costs and reduced airline capacity may also lead to financial difficulties for some carriers, potentially resulting in bankruptcies and fewer available flights [1][5][7][8].

## What the records show

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that European jet fuel prices averaged $207.61 a barrel for the week ending October 16, 2026 [6][18]. This figure represents an increase of almost 128% compared to the same period a year earlier [6][18].

In response to these rising costs, Ryanair adjusted its financial year 2027 (FY2027) passenger target downward, from 216 million to 214 million passengers [3][13][14][15][16][17]. The airline also modified its winter operations to reduce its exposure to higher, unhedged fuel expenses [3][14]. Specifically, Ryanair cut 20 routes and over one million seats from its Belgian winter schedule, planning to operate with six fewer aircraft across Brussels Charleroi and Brussels Zaventem airports [12].

Ryanair has fuel cost protection through March 2027, with 80% of its needs hedged at $67 per barrel [7][12]. However, this coverage significantly drops after March, with only 15% of its fuel hedged at $85 per barrel, which is approximately half the current spot price [7][9].

## The timeline

On September 2, 2026, Ryanair announced a reduction in its passenger target for the financial year ending March 2027, lowering it by two million, from 216 million to 214 million [3][13][14][15][16][17]. At the same time, the airline indicated that winter traffic between November and March would remain generally flat year-on-year, rather than achieving its previously expected growth [3]. These adjustments were made to reduce exposure to expensive, unhedged fuel during the less profitable winter season [3][14].

By October 8, 2026, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary stated that European airlines faced “an enormous cost challenge” going into 2027 due to ongoing high jet fuel prices, which he linked to the Middle East conflict [11]. In the week ending October 16, 2026, European jet fuel prices reached an average of $207.61 a barrel [6][18].

On October 20, 2026, O'Leary held a news conference in Brussels where he predicted a substantial increase in European airfares and warned of potential airline bankruptcies and takeovers [1][2][4][5][7][10]. On the same day, Ryanair announced cuts to its Belgian winter schedule, citing the country's planned aviation tax increase and the impact of higher fuel costs [12].

## What changed and for whom

Ryanair's operational adjustments mean fewer available seats and routes for travelers, particularly those flying to or from Belgium [3][12][14]. For European passengers generally, the primary change is the prospect of significantly higher airfares, with predictions ranging from a 10% to 20% increase in 2027 [1][2][4][5][7]. The airline industry faces increased financial pressure, especially carriers without extensive fuel price hedging, which could lead to market consolidation [1][5][7][8].

## What the subject has said publicly

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary publicly stated on October 20, 2026, that European airfares are likely to rise by “10, 15, maybe 20%” in 2027, which he described as potentially “the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months” [4][5][9]. He attributed this projected increase to soaring jet fuel prices, coupled with limited fuel-price protection for many airlines and a resulting reduction in overall airline capacity [2].

O'Leary warned that many carriers are not hedged against the rising costs of jet fuel, which he predicted would lead to airline bankruptcies and takeovers [1][5][7][8]. This market contraction would, in turn, result in fewer available seats [1][8]. He noted that while Ryanair has locked in its fuel costs at about $67 per barrel for the current year, he expects prices to double next year as that protection expires, with only 15% hedged at $85 per barrel after March 2027 [7][12]. O'Leary also specifically cited Belgium's planned aviation tax increase as a reason for Ryanair's decision to cut routes and seats from its Belgian winter schedule [12].

## What we could not confirm

PrimaryBrief could not confirm the precise number of European airlines that are currently unhedged against jet fuel price increases, nor could it independently verify which specific airlines might face bankruptcy or acquisition. The exact percentage of airfare increases for individual routes or specific airlines beyond Ryanair's general prediction could also not be confirmed.

## Evidence cited
1. Expect 20% Airfare Hike In 2027, As Airline Bosses Sound Jet Fuel Alarm (forbes.com) — https://forbes.com/
2. European Airfares Expected to Rise by 10-20% in 2027, Warns Ryanair CEO - The Euro Magazine (theeuromagazine.com) — https://theeuromagazine.com/
3. O'Leary: European Airfares To Soar by Up To 20% in 2027 (fl360aero.com) — https://fl360aero.com/
4. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary Warns Of Biggest Increase In EU Airfares Next Year | The Financial Express (youtube.com) — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h5c2X9A9wU
5. European air fares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, Ryanair boss predicts (theguardian.com) — https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/20/european-air-fares-could-rise-by-as-much-as-20-ryanair-boss-predicts
6. European airfares could rise by up to 20% in 2027, warns Ryanair CEO. Here’s why (euronews.com) — https://www.euronews.com/travel/2026/10/21/european-airfares-could-rise-by-up-to-20-in-2027-as-higher-fuel-costs-taxes-and-reduced-capaci
7. Ryanair Warns European Airfares Could Rise Up To 20% In 2027 - Live and Let's Fly (liveandletsfly.com) — https://liveandletsfly.com/ryanair-airfare-increase-2027/
8. European airfares to see "biggest increase in history" next year: Ryanair CEO (indiatimes.com) — https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/european-airfares-to-see-biggest-increase-in-history-next-year-ryanair-ceo/articleshow/114631245.cms
9. Instagram post by The Financial Express (instagram.com) — https://www.instagram.com/p/DB1a-ztsl-S/
10. Flights to Europe could get more expensive in 2027 as fuel costs surge, Ryanair warns (thenews.com.pk) — https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1222956-flights-to-europe-could-get-more-expensive-in-2027-as-fuel-costs-surge-ryanair-warns
11. European Airlines Face 'Enormous Cost Challenge,' Ryanair CEO Says | Aviation Week (aviationweek.com) — https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airlines/european-airlines-face-enormous-cost-challenge-ryanair-ceo-says
12. Ryanair cuts Belgium routes as CEO warns of ‘significant’ fare rises (cyprus-mail.com) — https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/20/ryanair-cuts-belgium-routes-as-ceo-warns-of-significant-fare-rises/
13. Ryanair Cuts Winter Schedule, Lowers FY27 Passenger Target Amid High Fuel Costs (airtraveler.club) — https://airtraveler.club/
14. Ryanair cuts passenger target, winter schedule on high fuel prices (aa.com.tr) — https://aa.com.tr/
15. Ryanair Cuts Fiscal 2027 Target to 214 Million Passengers, Reduces Winter Schedule (deeparrival.com) — https://deeparrival.com/
16. Ryanair August traffic up 6%; trims 2027 target (stocktitan.net) — https://stocktitan.net/
17. Ryanair Cuts FY27 Passenger Target, Plans Winter Reductions | Aviation Week (aviationweek.com) — https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airlines/ryanair-cuts-fy27-passenger-target-plans-winter-reductions
18. Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary warns European airfares could soar by 20% next year (femalefirst.co.uk) — https://femalefirst.co.uk/travel/ryanair-boss-michael-oleary-warns-european-airfares-could-soar-by-20-next-year-1383807.html