# Human Emissions Halted New Ice Age, Study Finds

> A study published this week reveals that human-driven global warming has stopped the onset of a new glacial period that began approximately 2,000 years ago.

By PrimaryBrief newsroom · Published 2026-10-24T12:45:10.033932Z
Canonical: https://primarybrief.com/article/human-emissions-halted-new-ice-age-study-finds-e3ce895d

Human-driven global warming has "canceled" the onset of a new glacial period, reversing a natural ice sheet expansion that started approximately 2,000 years ago [4]. This research, led by Nicolás Young and Joerg Schaefer of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, was published in the journal *Science* on October 22, 2026 [1][4][8].

This finding demonstrates that human emissions have altered a geological cycle operating for millions of years, fundamentally changing a natural planetary process [2]. The study provides concrete evidence for a concept previously discussed by paleoclimate researchers as a "failed ice age" [5][6]. This means a significant shift in Earth's climate trajectory driven by human activity, with implications for future ice formations and global temperatures.

## What the records show

The study focused on the Barnes Ice Cap, located on central Baffin Island in Nunavut, Canada [4][8]. This ice cap is the last remnant of the vast Laurentide Ice Sheet, which once covered much of North America [3][4][6]. To reconstruct the ice cap's growth and retreat, researchers utilized radiocarbon dating of preserved vegetation [1][3][5][6]. They analyzed patches of dead moss and dwarf shrubs that became exposed as the ice cap retreated, particularly material that started emerging in the 1960s [1][5][6]. By dating these plant samples, the team developed a timeline showing the ice margin's systematic advance over plants [1][6]. This method allowed scientists to determine when permanent ice advanced across specific locations [6].

## The timeline

Around 3,000 years ago, the Barnes Ice Cap reached its minimum extent [7][8]. Subsequently, about 2,000 years ago, the Arctic remnants of the Laurentide Ice Sheet began to grow again, signaling the start of a new glacial period [4][7][8]. This growth continued for nearly two millennia [2][7]. However, by the 1960s, summer temperatures had risen sufficiently that the ice cap began to shrink [4][7]. This shift from advance to retreat happened within a single human lifetime [5]. The research demonstrates that human activities had already caused the major North American ice sheet to start retreating, even as emissions were just beginning to ramp up significantly [3].

## What changed and for whom

The research concludes that continued human-caused warming has overwhelmed natural orbital forces that would typically lead to a cooling climate and the onset of a new ice age [2][6]. The rising concentrations of greenhouse gases effectively nullified this natural cooling push [2]. This alteration means a geological cycle that has operated for millions of years has been directly impacted by human emissions [2]. For the Barnes Ice Cap itself, earlier modeling studies project it will melt entirely within three centuries if warming continues unabated [2][7]. This complete melt would eliminate a "glacial seed crystal" from which future North American ice sheets historically grew [2]. The findings could also complicate efforts to reconstruct past glacial cycles and predict future glaciation [1][9].

## What the subject has said publicly

Nicolás Young, a geochemist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, commented on the significance of the findings, stating, "It was just getting started, everything was normal, the next glaciation was about to happen—and yet it stopped" [4]. Young further described the situation as "a very powerful example of how we have jolted the system" [4][5]. Gifford Miller, a glacial geologist at the University of Colorado Boulder and a collaborator on the study, put it more directly: "It's an illustration of the real power of greenhouse gases" [5][6]. Andrew Wickert, an associate professor of environmental science at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities, who was not involved in the research, noted that the new research shows that "even as we were just starting to ramp up emissions, we've already done enough damage to cause the major North American ice sheet to already start retreating. That's significant" [3].

## What we could not confirm

We could not confirm the exact number of other ice caps used for comparison with the Barnes Ice Cap findings [1][9]. We also could not confirm the full list of the nine other colleagues mentioned as collaborators on the study [5].

## Evidence cited
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