# Trump Approval Drops as Midterms Near, Democrats Lead by Double Digits

> President Donald Trump's approval ratings have fallen as low as 31%, with Democrats holding an 11 to 12 point lead over Republicans among likely voters ahead of the November midterm elections.

By PrimaryBrief newsroom · Published 2026-10-21T15:20:12.144841Z
Canonical: https://primarybrief.com/article/trump-approval-drops-as-midterms-near-democrats-lead-by-double-digits-c1213bd3

President Donald Trump's approval rating has plummeted to 31% in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, with other surveys showing figures as low as 34% and 36%, just weeks before the November midterm elections [9][14][3][2]. This decline coincides with Democrats holding a significant lead of 11 to 12 percentage points over Republicans among likely voters for control of Congress [1][3].

These polling numbers indicate widespread voter dissatisfaction with the current administration and signal a potentially challenging election for the Republican party. Democrats are now optimistic about securing significant gains and possibly controlling both chambers of Congress [11].

## What the records show

Recent polls reveal President Trump's approval rating at 31% according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey [9][14]. Other polls show his approval at 34%, with 62% disapproval, marking his worst month in their data [3]. A New York Times/Siena College poll recorded his approval at 36%, the lowest in their survey [2][12]. Voters express frustration over his handling of the US economy, the cost of living, and the ongoing war with Iran [2][5]. Only 17% of US adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, and 26% approve of his economic management overall [5]. A majority, 65%, blame Trump's policies for persistently high costs [5]. Among likely voters, Democrats lead Republicans by 11 percentage points in one poll and by 12 points in another [1][3]. A survey also found 58% of Americans believe it is more important to elect a Congress that will act as a check on President Trump [10].

## The timeline

As the November 3 midterm elections approach, Republican sentiment has shifted from "nervous to fatalistic," with many anticipating an "electoral disaster" [7][13]. This mood developed amid voter dissatisfaction with high fuel prices, which reached $8.99 per gallon in some areas and $24 in remote parts of Alaska, and broader economic concerns [4]. Republicans are increasingly worried about losing seats and surrendering their narrow House majority [7]. Analysts suggest it may be too late for President Trump to prevent a midterm disaster, with results likely "baked in" [13].

## What changed and for whom

Republican candidates in key states are actively distancing themselves from the administration's policies in their closing pitches [6]. Some are breaking with President Trump on the war with Iran and a new diesel deal with Russia [8]. Less than $1 of every $100 spent on television ads for Republican congressional candidates from September 9 to October 17 mentioned Trump [9]. This contrasts sharply with earlier in the campaign cycle, when more than 70% of Republican broadcast ads mentioned Trump before dropping off dramatically after Labor Day [9].

## What the subject has said publicly

President Donald Trump has been engaged in an intensive campaign, holding rallies in states such as South Carolina [1]. He has asked voters to "pretend that he is on the ballot" to bolster turnout [5][13]. Trump has defended the war with Iran, stating it would end soon and that fuel prices would decrease afterward. He also criticized opponents for focusing the election on affordability issues [4].

## What we could not confirm

We could not confirm the specific strategies internal to individual Republican campaigns for distancing themselves from the President, beyond what their advertising spending indicates. We also could not confirm the exact number of Republican candidates who have publicly broken with the President on specific policies, only that "more republican candidates" are doing so [8].

## Evidence cited
1. Likely voters prefer Democrats to Republicans in latest poll ahead of midterms as Trump’s popularity continues to sink – live (www.theguardian.com) — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/oct/21/donald-trump-south-carolina-data-centers-midterms-ukraine-witkoff-russia-latest-news-updates
2. Trump’s approval rating drops to 36% two weeks before midterms, poll finds (www.theguardian.com) — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/21/trump-approval-rating-midterms-poll
3. Strength In Numbers/Verasight Poll: Democrats Lead Generic Ballot by 10.4-12 Points; Trump Approval at 34% (Gelliottmorris.com) — https://example.com/source-unavailable
4. (October 18 2026) High fuel prices and economic concerns shape voter views ahead of 2026 midterms. (geniuseyenews.com) — https://geniuseyenews.com/
5. (October 01 2026) WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are deeply frustrated with President Donald Trump's handling of the economy and rising prices, with most panning his performance and blaming his policies as higher costs threaten his party's chances in November. A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that only 17% of U.S. adults approve of the Republican president's handling of the cost of living. Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, mar (ap.org) — https://ap.org/
6. (October 20 2026) These Republicans aren't running on Trumpism. They're running from it. (washingtonpost.com) — https://washingtonpost.com/
7. (October 15 2026) Republicans are sounding the alarm ahead of the November 3, 2026, US midterm elections, with growing concerns inside the House GOP about a possible electoral blowout. (youtube.com) — https://youtube.com/
8. (October 16 2026) More Videos. Next up in 5. Example video title will go here for this video. Next up in 5. Example video title will go here for this video. This comes as more republican candidates are breaking with President Trump on the war with Iran and a new diesel deal with Russia. Author: whas11.com. Published: 4:39 PM EDT October 16, 2026. Updated: 4:39 PM EDT October 16, 2026. WHAS-TV. Jobs · Terms of Service · Privacy Policy · Ad Choices · EEO Public File Report · FCC Online Public Insp (whas11.com) — https://whas11.com/
9. (October 21 2026) ... voters to pretend he's on the ballot, actual Republican candidates have increasingly tried to keep Trump out of the picture. Just look at their advertising. Less than $1 of every $100 spent on television ads for Republican congressional candidates from September 9 to October 17 mentions Trump, according to a New York Times review of data from the advertisement tracking firm AdImpact. By contrast, $20 of every $100 spent on Democratic ads mention Trump. Over that same period (fastcompany.com) — https://fastcompany.com/
10. (October 21 2026) In this month's survey, we asked Americans a few different questions about how they are thinking about the meaning of their vote in the upcoming midterm elections. 58% of Americans say it is more important to elect a Congress that will act as a check and balance on President Trump, vs 25% who ... (gelliottmorris.com) — https://gelliottmorris.com/
11. (October 20 2026) Democrats midterm elections expectations have surged to unprecedented heights as the party's advantage on the likely-voter adjusted generic congressional ballot expanded to a D +9.7 margin. Fresh projections from major predictive models show the party's probabilities of flipping both chambers of Congress climbing to their highest marks of the entire campaign cycle. This widening gap positions Democratic leadership within striking distance of sweeping majorities, yet it simultan (cristinaiglesias.com) — https://cristinaiglesias.com/
12. Trump’s approval rating drops to 36% two weeks before midterms, poll finds (www.theguardian.com) — https://theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/21/trump-approval-rating-midterms-poll
13. (October 17 2026) Analysts and strategists believe it may be too late for President Donald Trump to save his party from a midterm disaster, and that this year's midterm results—whether they favor the GOP or not—are likely already “baked in.” (newsweek.com) — https://newsweek.com/
14. (October 20 2026) President Donald Trump's approval rating sunk to a record low of 31%, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday, as Republicans face dire predictions about their performance in the midterm election. (forbes.com) — https://forbes.com/
15. (October 19 2026) A new Washington Post-ABC News poll over the weekend featured a telling stat. Other recent polls have generally shown voters prefer Democrats over Republicans for Congress by close to 10 points on the all-important “generic ballot.” But when President Donald Trump is invoked — i.e. choosing between a Democratic-controlled Congress that could act as a check on Trump, versus a GOP-controlled Congress that could pass his agenda — that gap balloons. Registered voters preferred the  (cnn.com) — https://cnn.com/
16. (October 01 2026) Republicans have expressed growing pessimism about their chances in the election, as Trump has repeatedly dismissed concerns about high costs and gas prices as his unpopular war in Iran drags on. US President Donald Trump speaks during an East Room event at the White House celebrating Hispanic Heritage Month, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, in Washington.(Photo | AP). Associated Press. Updated on: 01 Oct 2026, 3:41 pm. 4 min read. Copied. WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump and Vi (newindianexpress.com) — https://newindianexpress.com/
17. (September 23 2026) WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are growing increasingly grim about their chances in November, with aligned groups pumping money into reliably GOP states and candidates scrambling to distance themselves from unpopular White House policies. From Texas to Ohio and Alaska to Iowa, campaigns are grappling with a fed-up electorate that is sour on the president and angry over soaring fuel prices driven by an unpopular war. While Republicans are flush with unprecedented cash that coul (apnews.com) — https://apnews.com/
18. (October 16 2026) As Donald Trump bounces across ruby-red areas in an attempt to boost support for failing candidates — even asking voters to pretend he is on the ballot — his own supporters are catching a serious case of buyer's remorse. On the campaign trail, Trump promised to lower costs, but all he's done is double down on his war with Iran and failed agenda that's making life all too unaffordable for working families. Let's be clear: Everyday Americans are struggling, and even Trump's most  (wispolitics.com) — https://wispolitics.com/
19. (September 24 2026) Behind the first door, Trump appears to be aligning himself with communist leaders, while behind the second, he characterizes his opposition, the Democrats, as communists. What, then, lies behind the third door? 1w · 4 likes. Cosette Wentworth. Red! 1w · 29 likes. Tasya Hardono-Kadarman. Congratulations….. Blue Wave is coming. 1w · 1 like. Dan Braccio. 40 days! Oh, yes, there'll be some changes made! ✊  . 1w · 4 likes. Eric Schmidt. here's hoping. 1w · 5 likes. Jose Ripoll. I (facebook.com) — https://facebook.com/
20. (October 16 2026) By Jack O'Toole, Statehouse bureau | After days of speculation, President Donald Trump made it official Thursday: He'll be in Clemson Oct. 21 to rally for U.S. Sen. Darline Graham and other Republican candidates less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Graham, who was appointed in July to complete the term of her late brother Lindsey Graham, is locked in an unexpectedly close race with Lowcountry pediatrician Annie Andrews, a Democrat. The event will mark the se (charlestoncitypaper.com) — https://charlestoncitypaper.com/
21. (October 15 2026) In a forecasting special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics for the US midterm elections, all forecasters predict that the Democrats will capture the House of Representatives, but are split on who will emerge victorious in the Senate. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association (APSA), the special issue includes 17 studies showcasing a range of forecasting approaches and methodologies, from traditional political economy (eurekalert.org) — https://eurekalert.org/
22. (October 21 2026) Contact Us · Careers · FOX Around the World · Advertise With Us · Media Relations · Corporate Information · Compliance · Facebook · Twitter · Instagram · RSS · Email · Fox News · Terms of Use · New Privacy Policy · Your Privacy Choices · Closed Caption Policy · Help · Contact Us · Accessibility Statement · News Sitemap · Video Sitemap. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. ©2026 FOX News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. Quotes displayed i (foxnews.com) — https://foxnews.com/
23. (October 15 2026) In a forecasting special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics for the U.S. midterm elections, all forecasters predict that the Democrats will capture the House of Representatives, but most anticipate a narrow Republican victory in the Senate. “Predictions for the Senate race were less clear. Some forecasts are calling it for the Republicans and others are predicting a Democrat victory. All are expecting a close and contentious electoral victory.” Published by Cambridge Uni (politicalsciencenow.com) — https://politicalsciencenow.com/
24. (September 24 2026) With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, the sentiment among Republicans is shifting from nervous to fatalistic, as a pileup of bad news has many convinced they are heading toward an electoral disaster. (time.com) — https://time.com/
25. (October 15 2026) On the menu today: With less than three weeks until Election Day, just about every indicator for the Republicans in the midterms is flashing red warning signs. But when you look at the state of the country and the world . . . is it really all that surprising that a majority of the electorate is likely to want to see changes? Read on. The GOP's Rough National Outlook. If you buy the polls, things look dire for the Republicans as the midterms approach. Tons of GOP ads haven't mov (nationalreview.com) — https://nationalreview.com/
26. (October 19 2026) With just over two weeks until the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats have a three in four chance to gain control of the Senate, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver's forecast model. Author. Adrian Beaumont. Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne. Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot, (miragenews.com) — https://miragenews.com/
27. (October 19 2026) In a poll conducted ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, 58% of voters preferred a Democratic-led Congress, putting the party 19 percentage points ahead of the Republicans. President Trump's approval rating for his second term dropped to a record low of 33%, while 66% of respondents disapproved. (jkn.co.kr) — https://jkn.co.kr/
28. (October 09 2026) Scores of House Republicans are preparing for the worst-case scenario after internal polling showed just how doomed the GOP could be in the midterms, according to a report. (thedailybeast.com) — https://thedailybeast.com/
29. (October 19 2026) Since Sept. 28, Republicans have more than quadrupled their ad spending in the Kansas Senate race, tripled the investment in Mississippi's Senate contest and in House seats in Missouri, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Kentucky. (wemu.org) — https://wemu.org/
30. (September 29 2026) Ensure our investigative pieces, political dispatches, and cultural critiques are front and center when you search. Prioritize TNR on Google. (newrepublic.com) — https://newrepublic.com/
31. (April 28 2026) New York Times: “President Trump's approval ratings are down. Gas prices are up. Congressional Republicans are heading to the exits in record numbers. And Democratic enthusiasm is cresting… control of the Senate — not so long ago seen as a G.O.P. bulwark — is increasingly up for grabs as Democratic candidates up and down the ballot build substantial war chests.” MS NOW Guest: “Absolutely, the Senate is on the table. It would be foolish for people to assume it's not.” Washington P (dscc.org) — https://dscc.org/
32. (October 20 2026) A few figures explain what is at stake on Election Day and why Republicans fear they may be hit by a blue wave. (cfr.org) — https://cfr.org/