European Gas Prices Soar to 2022 Highs Amid Renewed Middle East Tensions

European natural gas prices reached over €97 per megawatt-hour on October 26, 2026, marking their highest point since December 2022 due to escalating Middle East tensions and disrupted liquefied natural gas supplies.[7][8]

This surge in energy costs threatens Europe's winter energy security and adds inflationary pressure globally, increasing expenses for consumers already grappling with high fuel prices.[11][13][14]

What the Records Show

Wholesale gas prices in Europe exceeded €97 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on October 26, 2026, with front-month Dutch TTF futures trading at €97.15/MWh. This represents the highest level since December 2022.[7] The current energy crisis stems from a conflict that began on February 28, 2026, involving the United States and Israel against Iran.[5][15] Initial attacks in early March 2026, alongside the loss of Ras Laffan, caused an immediate spike in natural gas prices across European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) markets.[9] The subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for approximately 20% of global oil supplies and significant LNG volumes, severely disrupted energy flows.[5]

By April 23, 2026, the European Commission reported that the Middle East conflict had “cut 20% of the global LNG exports.”[10] Analysis from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) in October 2026 indicated that Gulf LNG exports averaged only “1.73 billion cu m (bcm) per month” between March and September 2026, an “81.5 per cent” reduction from the pre-crisis five-year average.[6] The OIES suggested that prolonged supply disruptions would be absorbed primarily through reduced LNG imports and demand rather than increased production elsewhere.[6]

Brent crude oil prices quickly surged by 10–13% to $80–$82 per barrel by March 2, 2026.[5] An October 21, 2026, Quincy Institute analysis noted that the average Brent crude price for 2026 rose to $96 per barrel, which is “65 percent higher” than earlier projections by the US Energy Information Administration.[13] On October 23, 2026, oil prices briefly “passed $117 a barrel” after Tehran stated it would “attack oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities in the Gulf region if a new US-Israeli offensive was launched against Iran.”[1] Brent crude oil prices were around $115/bbl on October 26, 2026, remaining near six-month highs.[15] While a memorandum of understanding (MOU) earlier led to a significant pullback in prices, that resolution did not hold, and further escalations over the summer have led the market to price in a “sustained disruption” rather than a temporary one.[9]

European Gas Storage Levels

Europe faces concerns over its energy security ahead of the winter season. As of October 25, European gas storage levels stood at “74.6% of capacity,” which is significantly “below historical averages for late October.”[11][8] Baringa reported on October 24, 2026, that European gas storage on October 1 was “at its lowest level in over ten years, sitting at just 71%.”[9] These low inventory levels increase Europe's vulnerability to further supply disruptions and potential surges in heating demand.[11]

Diplomatic Efforts Underway

A “flurry of diplomacy” is underway in Tehran as of October 26, 2026.[3] Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey were expected to hold security talks with Iranian leaders, with aims to “cover regional conflicts” and potentially defuse the situation.[3] Al Jazeera reported that “Mecca defence alliance members [were] in Tehran to defuse Iran-US, Yemen tensions.”[2] Iran has publicly maintained that “diplomacy remains possible but rejects U.S. demands for surrender.”[4]

What we could not confirm

The specific details of the security talks in Tehran, including outcomes or agreements, were not immediately available. The current status of the “new US-Israeli offensive” that Iran threatened to retaliate against remains unclear.