Local Information Crucial for Hurricane Maps, FSU Researchers Say

Florida State University (FSU) researchers recommend that national hurricane graphics be paired with clear, local information to give the public a better understanding of risks and necessary actions[1][2][9]. Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, the study's lead author, stated in August that a single graphic tells only part of the story and should be combined with local details about expected impacts and protective measures[1][9][10].

This recommendation addresses persistent issues with how the public interprets hurricane forecasts, which can lead to inadequate preparation for dangerous weather events[7]. Improving public understanding of hurricane risks is critical for public safety in regions prone to these powerful storms.

What the records show

The FSU study, led by Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray from the School of Communication, examined an experimental forecast graphic developed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)[4]. Ray worked alongside co-authors Professor Patrick Merle, Director of the School of Communication, and Assistant Professor Bradford Johnson from the Department of Geography[4]. Researchers surveyed residents in Florida and Georgia, exposing them to either the traditional coastal-only hurricane cone or the experimental version, which included inland watches and warnings[3].

The study found mixed results: participants who viewed the newer map were better at identifying inland areas under hurricane or tropical storm watches[3]. However, this improvement did not translate into a greater perception of the storm's danger or an increased likelihood to plan protective actions[3][7]. Ray emphasized, "Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story"[2][9][10]. She added, "Don't rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next"[2][9].

What changed and for whom

The National Hurricane Center's forecast track graphic is widely viewed but also frequently misinterpreted, according to an April 2019 report from NOAA[8]. This misunderstanding is not a new issue[5]. A 2018 study, for instance, investigated common misinterpretations of the hurricane cone, focusing on the belief that the cone's width equals storm size and that the cone's boundary defines the storm's boundary[5]. Further data from a survey of over 2,800 people between 2018 and 2019 revealed that 44% incorrectly believed they could determine a storm's size from the cone, and 40% incorrectly thought they could identify areas of damage from it[6].

The implications of these findings are significant for public safety in hurricane-prone areas[7]. If individuals do not accurately perceive the risks, they may not take necessary precautions, such as evacuating when advised or preparing their homes for impacts like inland winds and flooding[7]. The FSU researchers' recommendation suggests a path forward by integrating local forecasts with national graphics to foster a more complete understanding of expected impacts[10].

What we could not confirm

We could not confirm if the National Hurricane Center plans to formally adopt the FSU researchers' recommendations or implement changes to its hurricane graphics based on this study's findings.