Ofer Winter Stands Firm, Risks Fragmenting Right-Wing Vote in Israeli Election

Ofer Winter, leader of the far-right "Amcha Yisrael" party, has steadfastly refused to withdraw his candidacy from Israel's legislative elections, scheduled for October 27, 2026, despite public and private pressure from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich[1][2][6][12]. This decision threatens to fragment the right-wing vote, as polls indicate Winter's party may not cross the 3.25% electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset[6][8][12].

This standoff could undermine Netanyahu's ability to form a governing coalition following the election, potentially leading to political instability, prolonged coalition negotiations, or even another election, similar to the period between 2019 and 2022[5][12]. The outcome will directly impact Israel's political future, determining the composition and stability of its next government[5][9].

What the records show

Ofer Winter, a retired Israel Defense Forces Brigadier General who served for approximately 34 years until 2024, launched his right-wing "Amcha Yisrael," or "People of Israel," party on August 25, 2026[7][15][16]. His party's platform includes integrating Haredim into the IDF, connecting Arabs who support Israel, judicial reform, and dismantling protection rackets[15]. Winter retired from the military after being repeatedly passed over for promotion to major general[16].

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who leads the Religious Zionist Party, have exerted significant pressure on Winter to withdraw from the race[1][6]. Their primary concern is that Amcha Yisrael, which consistently polls at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, will waste right-wing votes that could otherwise contribute to Netanyahu's bloc[6][8][12]. On October 21, 2026, Netanyahu publicly urged Winter to withdraw, stating, "'Ofer Winter, listen to the bereaved families, show responsibility and withdraw, for the sake of right-wing victory!'"[12].

On October 21, 2026, Smotrich publicly offered Winter a ministerial position in the Defense Ministry as an incentive to step aside[6][17]. Netanyahu and Smotrich also met with Rabbi Eli Sadan, Winter's mentor, on October 20 and 21, 2026, in an attempt to persuade him[12][13]. Families who lost loved ones in recent conflicts published an open letter on October 21, 2026, calling on Winter to withdraw, citing polls indicating his party would not cross the electoral threshold[12].

The timeline

Winter retired from the Israel Defense Forces in 2024 after 34 years of service[7][16]. He founded the "Amcha Yisrael" party on August 25, 2026[15]. As the October 27, 2026, elections approached, pressure from Netanyahu and Smotrich intensified[1][6]. Public calls for his withdrawal and a ministerial offer were made on October 21, 2026[6][12]. Winter publicly rejected these appeals and the offer on October 21, 2026[3][6].

What changed and for whom

Winter's unwavering stance complicates Prime Minister Netanyahu's efforts to secure a stable governing coalition[2][5]. If Amcha Yisrael fails to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, tens of thousands of right-wing votes could be lost, weakening Netanyahu's bloc[12][14]. This situation increases the possibility that no clear majority will be reached, potentially forcing negotiations with Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties, or leading to another election[4][5]. The ongoing instability impacts Israeli voters, who face uncertainty about the government's formation and its direction[5][9].

What the subject has said publicly

Despite the intense pressure, Winter has remained resolute in his decision to stay in the election[1][6]. On October 21, 2026, he explicitly rejected Smotrich's offer, declaring, "'I did not surrender in the past. I am not surrendering today. And I will not surrender in the future when it comes to the values and principles for which we entered this fight'"[6][17]. Winter expressed confidence that his party would cross the electoral threshold, asserting, "We are running all the way, and we will cross the electoral threshold"[3]. He accused members of his own political camp of waging an "ugly and unimaginable" campaign against his party, alleging harassment of candidates and their children, the hiring of private investigators, and pressure on rabbis[6].

Winter maintains that Amcha Yisrael is part of the pro-Netanyahu right-wing bloc[6]. However, he has conditioned his party's support for a future government on the advancement of its priorities, such as benefits for military personnel and promoting the "voluntary migration" of Palestinians from Gaza, stating, "'There will be no blank check'"[6]. He has also categorically ruled out joining the anti-Netanyahu bloc[6]. Winter had initially pledged to recommend only Netanyahu for prime minister if a law enforcing the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men was passed, but later suggested this pledge "may have been a mistake"[12][14].

What we could not confirm

We could not confirm the specific details or evidence supporting Ofer Winter's allegations of harassment, private investigator use, or pressure on rabbis by his political opponents[6].