A study led by the University of Melbourne, published in October 2026, found that strategies aimed at reducing demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) could prevent 6.0 to 7.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050. This approach offers a greater environmental benefit than solely focusing on cleaner manufacturing processes for the batteries that power electric vehicles and store renewable energy.

This finding matters because, while LIBs are essential for the clean energy transition, their production currently contributes approximately 0.18% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. Without changes, demand for these batteries is projected to increase twentyfold by 2050, potentially leading to a tenfold rise in supply-chain greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the most effective ways to lessen this growing carbon footprint is important for reaching climate goals.

What the Records Show

The research, published in 'One Earth', modeled the global LIB supply chain from 2024 to 2050. It compared two main approaches to reducing emissions: supply-side decarbonization and demand-side management.

Supply-side measures, which include improvements in manufacturing efficiency, eco-friendly production methods, and increased recycling, could reduce the carbon footprint per battery by 34% by 2050. These efforts could avoid 3.5 to 4.7 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions between 2024 and 2050. However, the study concluded that such improvements are "not enough to mitigate the resulting annual LIB supply chain emissions" given the projected growth in demand.

In contrast, demand-side strategies were identified as more impactful. These include extending the operational life of batteries, limiting the growth of battery capacity, promoting ride-sharing, and repurposing spent automotive batteries for stationary energy storage. These strategies combined could prevent 6.0 to 7.2 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions from 2024 to 2050. Specifically, extending EV battery life could reduce new battery demand by 29%, limiting capacity growth by 23%, ride-sharing by 10%, and repurposing batteries by 8%.

The Path to Lower Emissions

The study suggests that combining both ambitious supply-side and demand-side strategies could roughly halve cumulative global battery supply chain emissions through 2050. Without any intervention, emissions are estimated to reach 19-23 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, but with combined efforts, this could drop to approximately 9-12 billion tonnes.

Expert Perspectives

Dr. Haiwei Zhou, a leader of the research team, emphasized the need for policy and industry efforts to "move beyond regulating production emissions alone". Co-author Professor Prakash Singh highlighted a fundamental question for the industry: "How much battery capacity do we actually need to provide the service?". The researchers plan to refine their model in future work to include greater regional detail.

What we could not confirm

The study did not specify the exact policy mechanisms or industry changes required to implement the demand-side strategies, nor did it detail the economic costs associated with these changes. The timeframe for implementing regional improvements to the model was also not specified.