Rove, Axelrod Offer Midterm Predictions and Clash Over Election Security

Political strategists Karl Rove, a Republican, and David Axelrod, a Democrat, discussed their predictions for several competitive Senate races and debated election security in a PBS NewsHour segment broadcast in early October 2026[1][2]. The discussion originated from an event at The Economic Club of Chicago on September 29, 2026[1].

These insights from prominent political figures offer a view into the potential outcomes of the November elections and spotlight concerns regarding the integrity of the voting process. Their differing predictions and security concerns illustrate the stakes involved for control of the Senate.

Election Security Debate

During their conversation, Axelrod voiced concerns that Donald Trump might attempt to interfere with the November elections[3]. Axelrod suggested Trump could use the U.S. Department of Justice to declare a national emergency, potentially deploying the military at polling sites or seizing voting machines[3]. Rove dismissed these concerns as "ridiculous"[3].

Senate Race Outlook

The strategists shared their forecasts for several Senate contests across the country.

In Alaska, Rove expressed concern for incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, stating, "I worry about Alaska"[6]. Axelrod described the race as a "coin-flip," noting Democratic candidate Mary Peltola's past success with ranked-choice voting[6].

For the Georgia Senate race, Axelrod predicted incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff was the "least likely incumbent in a competitive race to lose their seat"[7]. Rove did not comment on the Georgia race[7].

Regarding the open Republican seat in Iowa, Axelrod also labeled it a "coin-flip"[8]. Rove, by contrast, predicted a win for Republican candidate Ashley Hinson[8].

In Maine, Rove projected that Senator Susan Collins would secure a victory[9]. Axelrod offered a different view, stating the seat was "in play" and would be "close," while acknowledging Collins's reputation as a "formidable survivor"[9].

For Texas, both strategists agreed that Democrat James Talarico would win if the election were held at that moment[10][11]. Rove noted that the race had "tightened a little bit" due to Talarico's "more controversial statements"[10][11]. Axelrod also called it a "coin-flip," praising Talarico as "one of the most talented candidates running this year" and criticizing his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, as "perhaps the worst candidate in the country"[10][11]. Rove questioned whether Paxton would debate[10][11].

Rove's Unspecified Vote

Separately, Rove publicly stated his intention to vote for a Democrat in a specific instance, though the particular race was not detailed in the reported excerpts[5].

What we could not confirm

The specific race in which Karl Rove intends to vote for a Democrat was not detailed[5]. The context or content of James Talarico's "more controversial statements" were not specified[10][11].