Business & Economy
UK Retail Sales Decline by 0.4% in September, Exceeding Forecasts
Great Britain's retail sales volumes fell by 0.4% in September 2026, a larger drop than economists had predicted, as consumer confidence plunged ahead of the Autumn Budget.
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THE PRIMARY BRIEF
- 01 · The primary finding
Great Britain's retail sales volumes fell by 0.4% in September 2026, surpassing economists' predictions of a 0.1% decline, and was partly driven by a 2.2% drop in online sales attributed to unseasonably warm weather.
- 02 · The primary evidence
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.4% month-on-month fall in retail sales volumes for September 2026, with non-store retailing seeing a 2.2% decline, citing unseasonably warm weather affecting autumn clothing sales.
- 03 · Why it matters
This unexpected downturn, coupled with a significant drop in consumer confidence, signals economic challenges for households and increases pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of his Autumn Budget.
Great Britain's retail sales volumes declined by 0.4% in September 2026 compared to August, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.1% fall, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This unexpected downturn signals increasing caution among households as Chancellor John Healey prepares to deliver his first budget.
This monthly decrease follows a revised 0.7% rise in August and a 0.4% fall in July. Despite the September dip, overall retail sales volumes for the third quarter of 2026 increased by 0.7% compared to the second quarter. Year-on-year, September's volumes were 0.8% higher, a slower growth rate than the 2.7% recorded in August.
What the records show
On October 23, 2026, the ONS reported that the quantity of goods bought by consumers in Great Britain decreased by 0.4% in September from the previous month. This figure was worse than the 0.1% decline anticipated by economists. For the full third quarter of 2026, retail sales volumes rose by 0.7% compared with the second quarter. Annually, retail sales volumes increased by 0.8% in September, a noticeable slowdown from the 2.7% growth seen in August.
What changed and for whom
Non-store retailing, which mainly includes online sales, experienced the steepest decline within the sector, falling by 2.2% in September. Online clothing retailers specifically reported that the release of their autumn and winter collections did not perform well due to unseasonably warm weather. Across the non-food store category, sales volumes fell by 0.4%, with declines noted in clothing and footwear stores, sports equipment stores, and household goods retailers. Retailers attributed these drops to reduced footfall and consumers cutting back on spending. In contrast, automotive fuel sales saw a 2.2% increase in volume during September, despite rising fuel prices.
What the subject has said publicly
Retail organizations are urging the government to address tax pressures. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has called for a freeze on business rates to prevent an estimated £250 million in additional costs for retailers from April 2027. This advocacy comes as Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a £210 million package in late September 2026 to regenerate high streets across England, aiming to convert vacant shops and disused buildings into community hubs and cafes.
What we could not confirm
The specific details of the proposed business rates freeze by the British Retail Consortium were not outlined in the available evidence. The precise allocation or expected impact timeline of the £210 million high street regeneration package announced by Prime Minister Andy Burnham remains unclear.
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