Amazon Deforestation Hits Record Low Ahead of Brazil's Election Run-off

Brazil's Amazon rainforest recorded its lowest deforestation level, with 3,335 square kilometers cleared, between August 2025 and July 2026, according to data released by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) on October 16, 2026[1][9]. This figure represents a 42% decrease from the previous year and stands as the lowest annual rate since systematic monitoring began in 1988[1].

This environmental achievement arrives days before a presidential election run-off on October 25, 2026, which will determine whether current forest protection policies continue or are reversed, impacting global climate and biodiversity[1][2][13]. The future of the world's largest rainforest now hinges on the outcome of this closely contested vote[2][13].

What the records show

INPE's announcement confirmed that only 3,335 square kilometers of the Amazon were cleared during the monitoring period from August 2025 to July 2026[1][22]. This 42% reduction from the prior year represents the lowest annual rate of deforestation recorded since the institute began its systematic monitoring in 1988[1][9]. The data indicates a significant slowdown in forest loss within the Brazilian Amazon[1].

The political timeline

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration, which took office in January 2023, is credited with the turnaround in deforestation rates[1]. Lula's government reinstated the Amazon Fund and reactivated the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm)[1][18][19][20]. These measures, which include strong enforcement tools, aim for "zero deforestation" by 2030[1][21]. In contrast, during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro from 2019 to 2022, Amazon deforestation surged by approximately 60%, with more than 45,000 square kilometers cleared[1][10][11][12].

What the candidates say

Brazil is currently facing a presidential election run-off on October 25, 2026, between incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro[1][8]. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured 47.03% of the votes in the first round, while Lula received 45.16%[3][5][15]. Flávio Bolsonaro's environmental platform advocates for easing environmental regulations, a stance that has drawn criticism as "anti-environmental"[1]. This approach raises concerns among environmentalists and scientists about a potential reversal of the current forest protection policies if he wins the election[1].

What we could not confirm

We could not confirm specific details of Flávio Bolsonaro's proposed environmental policies beyond general statements about easing regulations. We also could not confirm what immediate actions the Lula administration plans to take if they win the run-off to maintain or further accelerate the reduction in deforestation.