A Red Flag Warning is in effect for parts of Montana, Wyoming, and South Dakota, issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Billings, Montana. The warning began on October 23 at 2:43 AM MDT and is scheduled to remain active until October 24 at 12:00 AM MDT. These conditions are expected to lead to erratic fire behavior and make it difficult to control new or existing fires.

The NWS cited a combination of low humidities, unseasonably warm temperatures, and strong gusty winds as factors contributing to the critical fire weather. A wind shift associated with a cold front is also anticipated. Winds are forecast to be from the southwest at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts reaching up to 45 mph. These winds are expected to shift to the northwest behind a cold front moving through the area from late afternoon into early evening.

The warning covers North Central Wyoming Fire Zone 274, Southeast Montana Fire Zone 131, and Southeast Montana and Northwest South Dakota Fire Zone 133. Specific counties affected include Sheridan in Wyoming; Harding in South Dakota; and Big Horn, Carter, Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud, and Treasure in Montana. The most dangerous conditions are predicted along and southeast of a line extending from Baker, Montana, to Sheridan, Wyoming.

Forecasters from NWS Billings indicated that very warm, dry, and windy conditions would produce critical fire weather across portions of Northern Wyoming, Southeastern Montana, and Western South Dakota on Friday. For Sheridan County, Wyoming, a Red Flag Warning was reported for October 23, due to dry air, warm temperatures, and strong winds that could cause wildfires to start easily and become hard to control. This specific warning for Sheridan County was noted to run from noon to 9 p.m. MDT on October 23. While the NWS alert includes Harding County, South Dakota, a report updated October 22 stated no Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches were active across South Dakota.